MTS Insights

While doing some research for my book earlier this month, I came across an interesting graphic created by Dermot Gately in his paper "Lessons from the 1986 Oil Price Collapse." The chart provided a useful perspective on the equilibrium price of a barrel of oil during a period where OPEC sought to control the price by cutting production after it fell to lows in the 1970's. Revenue levels for the oil cartel declined to almost $50 billion endangering the health of many economies that relied on its natural resources for survival.  As more members began to feel the pain of tighter trade balances, more support for a supply cut forced the hand of the swing producer, Saudi Arabia. The price control worked until 1986 when prices crashed again. From Gately's "Lessons from the 1986 Oil Price Collapse" Gately's chart plots output, price, and revenue on a graphical space that can be pictured as a curve in three-dimensional space, but, for informational purpose...

The steadfast Federal Reserve is at it again. After a meeting on November 2 nd , the committee of ten concluded with the federal funds rate and the discount rate held steady at the status quo. In the release, they say that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,” but of course, confidence wasn’t strong enough for the economy to off of low-interest rate life support. Three hesitant words stuck out to in particular: the labor market is expected to “strengthen somewhat further,” economic activity well grow “at a moderate pace,” and market risks “appear roughly balanced.” To me, these filler words indicate that the Federal Reserve recognizes the signs of a cyclical peak and seeks to diffuse tension in an economy that is moving flatly. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq indices are trending at all-time highs, valuations continue to rise, and economic numbers paint an ambivalent picture of the economy. It’s not hard to c...