MTS Insights

Today is a big day for solar energy as the world's first solar-powered airplane completed its circumnavigation of the globe. The journey marked the first time a plane has circled the globe without the need for fuel. Solar Impulse 2, the name of the craft that made the trip, was flown over 21,000 miles by two pilots rotating in the cockpit. After layovers in five different continents, the lightweight plane landed where it started in Abu Dhabi. Despite being wide than a Boeing 747, the solar-powered craft weighs only 5,000 pounds according to WIRED . Four 17.4-horsepower motors account for most of the weight, but when equipped with 17,000 photovoltaic panels, the machine becomes capable of flying at an average speed of about 47 mph. Yes, this plane is still painfully slow, but it introduces renewable energy potential to the air. The motors generated well over 10 MWh of energy an impressive feat that compares to some systems on the ground. Proving that energy can be successfully creat...

In late June, the famed Bank for International Settlements produces their annual report for their financial year that ends at the end of March. The financial institution, based in Basel, Switzerland, is known for its international clientele and enduring history of excellent economic analysis. With 60 central banks included in its operations, the BIS has its hands in a group of nations that accounts for about 95 percent of the world's GDP. Hence, a report as extensive and in-depth as its annual publication is widely read and referenced among analysts. Its insights into monetary policy and the dynamics of the global economy are impressive. For that reason, I shall use the charts and graphs in the report to paint a picture of BIS's economic analysis as well as adding my own perspective along the way. Here is the global economy in charts. All images and quotes can be found in this report . "The global economy is not as weak as rhetoric suggests" The media, analys...

So far in our investigation, we've looked at the existing fundamental condition of the global economy to support the proposition that a crash is coming. Debt levels have continued to rise since the financial crisis in 2008, and companies and households continue to increase their leverage despite mini-crashes in August of 2015 and January of 2016. The declining health of corporate and governmental balance sheets has endangered the survivability of many national stock markets which are faced with the risk of crisis similar to the Greek debt crisis that happened a couple of years ago. These debt conditions are allowed to prevail because of the loose behavior of the world's central banks, namely the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Cheap credit has encouraged a growth in business loans, mortgages, auto loans, and credit card use that has surpassed the levels seen in the years leading up to the financial crisis. The conditions just described are not...

Crude oil: Crude oil fundamentals are reacting bullishly to the spike in refining this summer. Domestic production fell 39,000 b/d to 8.677 million b/d approaching another significant milestone at 8.5 million b/d. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. producers have cut 542,000 b/d worth of production as the squeeze on supply continues despite the stabilization of oil prices. Crude oil stockpiles continued their decline as well. With a drop of about 900,000 barrels, last week stockpiles were reported at 1.225 billion barrels. For the year, stocks are up about 48 million barrels but have declined in the past two months at a rate of about 13 million barrels. Refinery data spiked to new highs this week as upstream operations heat up with the temperatures. Refinery inputs grew by 190,000 b/d to 16.505 million b/d reaching a new peak for the year. So far, June averages are well above the earlier 2016 months. Compared to last year, this week's refinery inputs are just 27,000 b/d l...

The next step in predicting a crisis is identifying the causes behind the growth of the global debt problem. The proliferation of credit, loans, and any other form of borrowing does not occur randomly. Individuals, businesses, and governments are all affected by the state of risk in the economy, the availability of capital in the current setting, and how costly this capital will be. The growth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the prelude to the financial crisis was caused by the perception that these assets were low risk increasing the demand for their creation. As a result, the amount of residential mortgage debt skyrocketed. After the unraveling of the housing market in 2009 and 2010, a similar trajectory has developed leading up to today. In this episode of Predicting a Crash, we're going to look at how central banks in developed nations have encouraged the formation of a debt crisis with cheap capital and a bloated money supply. Before visiting the curren...

In the first part of Predicting a Crash , I identified debt as one of the main drivers of global weakness in the past couple of years. Despite the mountains of debt that brought down the housing market, developed and emerging economies have continued to borrow piling onto record levels of sovereign, household, and corporate debt. At some point, this pyramid will implode taking down the global economy with it. If you don't believe me, refer back to the financial crisis just eight years ago for an example of the crushing effects of too much debt. But the crash of the housing market would be small potatoes compared to what could happen if governments and multinational corporations tumble from the leveraged pedestal from which they rule. In this installment of Predicting the Crash, we'll begin to dissect the debt problems and what companies, governments, and analysts are saying about its implications. Because of its large growth rates and massive population, China, and its...

Crude oil: Crude oil fundamentals continue to support a bullish recovery in spot prices. After growing slightly last week, total production fell once again losing 29,000 b/d to land at 8.716 million b/d total. While rig data showed an increase in drilling operations, extraction rates continue to fall with the exception of last week's peculiar gain. Crude oil stocks added onto its losing streak dropping about 900,000 barrels to 1.226 billion barrels total. The draw on crude inventories marks the 4th straight decline as the accelerated refinery season suggests a bullish trend in stockpiles could speed up as well. Refinery inputs fell slightly last week. Down about 100,000 b/d, refinery usage of crude oil totaled 16.317 million b/d. While this week appears to be a drawback, the overall trend should continue upward throughout the summer. Rig utilization dropped by 0.7 percent to land just above 90 for the week. Refinery statistics for the summer of 2016 are well above the trends in t...